Jidong Cement (000401) Announcement Comments: Results Meet Expectations Expect Volume and Price to Rise in Second Half
Core point of view: The company’s 2019 semi-annual performance forecast predicts that H1 will achieve net profit attributable to its mother14.
150,000 yuan, a ten-year increase (after reorganization) 57.
From an absolute point of view, the company’s H1 performance is in line with our and market expectations.
From an upstream perspective, due to the significant adjustments in the consolidated statement of the company from last year to this year, according to the requirements of accounting standards, even after readjustment, they are still not comparable.
In addition, the company announced that the comprehensive sales of H1 cement and clinker was 4,576 pounds, which increased by 14% per year under the same caliber. We estimated that the company’s comprehensive sales of cement and clinker Q2 was 3,161 inches, and increased under the same caliber.
Demand in core regions is strong, and the volume and price of cement are rising. The second half of the year may continue to be the main business area of Jidong Cement. In 2018, the company ‘s revenue in the Pan-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region accounted for more than 60%.
According to statistics from the National and Hebei Provincial Bureau of Statistics, the length of new housing construction in Hebei Province increased by 6 from January to May 2019.
6% (compared to -22 in the same period last year).
5%), 北京夜网 infrastructure investment growth rate of about 14% in ten years, jointly driving the province’s cement output increased by 19 over the same period.
8% (-10% in the same period last year.
At the same time, the price of Hebei cement in Q2 2019 was 477 yuan / ton, an increase of 22 yuan / ton year-on-year, and both volume and price rose.
We judge that with the joint promotion of infrastructure and real estate in the second half of the year, the core area of the company is expected to maintain the trend in the first half of the year, driving the company’s high growth.
In March 2019, the company’s major asset reorganization with Jinyu Group has been completed, the company’s market share in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has exceeded 50%, is in an absolute leading position, and the market voice is further enhanced; at the same time, the company’s restructuring effect isIt appears quarter by quarter. Since the third quarter of 2018, the company’s gross profit margin and expense ratio have improved significantly. We judge to change the company’s operating efficiency, future costs, expenses and downside.
Investment suggestion: Maintain “Buy” rating Based on optimistic judgment on the company’s region, we raise the company’s EPS to 2 in 2019-2021.
26 yuan, according to the latest closing price of the corresponding PE is 6 respectively.
6 times, the corresponding PB is 1.
98 times, the reference company’s estimated average level of PB (LF) is 1 in the past 5 years.
64 times, considering the rise of the company’s profit center, given the company 1.
8 times PB, quantified net assets by 201913.
54 yuan, corresponding to a reasonable value of 24.
37 yuan / share; maintain “Buy” rating.
Risks suggest that the start-up of infrastructure projects does not meet expectations, the execution of staggered peaks does not meet expectations, increased production capacity exceeds expectations, and corporate collaboration is gradually expected, and raw material costs have increased significantly.