ST Aixu (600732): Global leader in photovoltaic cells set sail
For pure PERC cells, the production 成都桑拿网capacity plan for the next three years is 22/32 / 45GW: Ai Xu Technology was established in 2009, and its main product is solar crystalline silicon cells.
In early 2017, PERC cells were mass-produced using tubular PERC technology in the first stage. In 2018, all production lines were upgraded to monocrystalline PERC through technical transformation.
According to the company’s official website, at the end of 19 Aixu PERC battery capacity was 9.
2GW, of which Foshan 1.
6GW, Yiwu 3.
8GW, Tianjin 3.
On January 10, 2020, Yiwu Phase II was put into production ahead of schedule. According to the company’s plan, the high-efficiency battery production capacity in 2020/2021/2022 will reach 22GW / 32GW / 45GW respectively.
PERC has the leading industry in battery efficiency and the first echelon in cost: The company’s own patented tubular PERC technology has advantages in efficiency, cost, and product reliability compared to other PERC technologies. The battery conversion efficiency has been from 21 to date.
56% increased to 22.
5%, which is higher than the average efficiency of the CPIA forecast industry.
1%, the product seeks to enjoy a premium.
According to the company announcement, the non-silicon cost of the company’s monocrystalline PERC in the first half of 2019 has been reduced to zero.
253 yuan / W, far below the industry average of 0.
34 yuan / W, in the international leading level.
Double-sided battery technology is expected to benefit from the 201 tariff exemption: the company took advantage of its lead to successfully launch PERC double-sided batteries in 2018 and pioneered the “double-sided double-test” technology.
By doing double-sided battery front 0.
1% bins, 0 on the back.
The 5% bin detection improves the consistency of double-sided quality, and the power generation after packaging into components increases at least 3%.
According to Solar Power World, the US International Trade Court has decided to exclude two-way components from the 201 tariff in the future.
If the decision takes effect, the export of double-sided components will no longer have to pay a 25% fee, which will indirectly improve the market competitiveness of high-efficiency double-sided batteries, and the company’s double-sided PERC batteries are expected to replace them.
PERC battery prices are firm, and the company’s profit turning point is apparent: In 19 years, the peak period of monocrystalline PERC capacity release, product prices fell, the expansion pace improved, and production capacity was gradually cleared.
We expect the surplus situation of PERC battery replenishment will continue to improve in 2020合肥夜网 , and product prices strive to remain firm.
In addition, a large amount of monocrystalline silicon wafer capacity will be released in 2020, and the company’s product raw material silicon wafer prices are expected to fall.
We expect the company’s single quarter gross profit margin to bottom out from 19Q3 and the turning point of the company’s profitability has already appeared.
Investment suggestion: We expect the company’s annual income from 2019 to 2021 to be 0.
33 yuan, 0.
68 yuan, 1.
12 yuan, give “Buy-A” investment rating.
Risk warnings: upstream production expansion is less than expected; product prices fall more than expected; PV installations increase less than expected; trade friction risks.